14 January 2015

The Nationwide House Price Premier League

If last year’s Premier League had been measured on changes in house prices, Tottenham Hotspur would have been crowned champions. And unfortunately for them, Newcastle United, Burnley and Hull would have seen themselves drop into the Championship. Here we look at what last year’s season would have finished up like had it been based on price surges and average house prices. Take a look at our accompanying infographic and read our feature below.

House price Champions League spots

In last year's real-world league, Manchester City (winners), Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal all qualified for coveted Champions League spots in a hard-fought season. 

Look at it from the perspective of house price swings, though, and the picture is altogether different. Here’s the alternative top 4:

House price Team 2013/14 Premier League % house price change 2013/14
1 Tottenham Hotspur 6 32% to £513,435
2 Chelsea 3 27% to £760,144
3 Queens Park Rangers N/A 27% to £760,144
4 Arsenal 4 23% to £701,030

If you own a home close to Tottenham’s White Hart Lane stadium, then you’d have been a winner too as average house prices surged 32% year-on-year to reach more than £500,000.

Nationwide house price index infographic

Relegation zone

Now to the other end of the table; last season, Norwich City, Fulham and Cardiff City all suffered the misery of relegation. Base it on house prices, though, and the picture is different:

House price league position Team 2013/14 Premier League position % house price change 2013/14
18 Newcastle United 10 3% to £181,473
19 Burnley N/A 2% to £112,868
20 Hull City 16 0% - flat at £130,289

Slow house price growth in Newcastle and Burnley and zero growth in Hull made these areas among the 'least attractive' - when it comes to house price changes.

Average house prices

If the league was based on average house prices rather than fluctuations in them, Chelsea and Queens Park Rangers would have (reluctantly) shared the trophy, with median prices of £760,144 in both areas.
Properties close to Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium come third (£701,030), followed by those in the shadow of White Hart Lane (£513,435). Moving down the league, the unlucky ones would once more be Hull City (£130,289) and Burnley (£112,868), as well as Stoke City (£133,831).

Fair-to-middling for Manchester City

Last season was a huge success for Manchester City: the team won the Premier League for the second time in three years, and it marked a first-season-in-charge win for new manager Manuel Pellegrini.
In the world of house prices though, it was fair-to-middling for properties close to the Etihad Stadium. Based on house price changes of 11%, the team found itself mired in mid-table mediocrity at 12th (with average property prices of £207,940).

Decade of house price changes

Between 2004 and 2014, only properties close to 3 grounds – Arsenal’s Emirates, QPR’s Loftus Road and Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge – saw house prices rise by more than 100%. As the bar chart at the bottom of our infographic shows, Arsenal enjoyed the most significant rise (125%), followed by Chelsea and QPR (both 110%).

Looking to buy a new property?

If our alternative Premier League has got you thinking about moving to a new area, here are some useful Nationwide guides to help you.

The price changes in the local authorities shown are based on the price per unit area of the properties in the sample rather than the mix-adjusted methodology used for the 13 regions. The average price per square foot in each of the local authorities is grossed up by the average square footage in a particular region to arrive at an average house price. Unlike Nationwide’s main index, this methodology does not take into account the different mix of properties transacted and is therefore a simplification. Local authority figures are therefore not directly comparable with regional prices. Samples are substantially smaller than at a regional level and figures should not be relied upon for any critical application. Due to greater volatility, prices are smoothed over two quarters.

Legal Information

The Nationwide House Price Indices are prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to their accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices at any time, for regulatory or other reasons.

Persons seeking to place reliance on the Indices for any purpose whatsoever do so at their own risk and should be aware that various factors, including external factors beyond Nationwide Building Society’s control might necessitate material changes to the Indices.

The Nationwide House Price Indices may not be used for commercial purposes including as a reference for: 1) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or other contracts relating to investments 2) determining the price at which investments may be bought or sold or the value of investments or 3) measuring the performance of investments.

Nationwide Building Society is the owner of the trade mark “Nationwide” and all copyright and other rights in the Nationwide House Price Indices. The application of the IOSCO Principles on financial benchmarks to the NHPI is more fully set out in our statement regarding IOSCO Principles This will open a PDF document which may open in a new window (depending on how your browser is set up). Nationwide considers that its arrangements for administration of the NHPI comply with the IOSCO Principles in a proportionate manner having regard to the nature of the index.

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