Methodology
The Consumer Confidence survey is conducted for The Nationwide by TNS, and was started in May 2004. 1,000 adults are interviewed each month, with the sample structured to be nationally representative of all adults in term of age, sex and socio-economic group. Data is available monthly. The questions asked to compute the indexes are based on those asked by the Conference Board, tailored for UK conditions.
The Index is based on responses to 5 questions included in the survey:
- respondents' appraisal of current economic conditions
- respondents' expectations regarding economic conditions six months hence
- respondents' appraisal of the current employment conditions
- respondents' expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence
- respondents' expectations regarding their total family income six months hence
For each of the 5 questions, there are three response options: POSITIVE, NEGATIVE and NEUTRAL. For each of the five questions the POSITIVE figure is divided by the sum of the POSITIVE and NEGATIVE to yield a proportion, which we call the "RELATIVE" value. For each question, the RELATIVE for May 2004 is then used as a benchmark to yield the INDEX value for that question. The Indexes are then averaged together as follows: Consumer Confidence Index: Average of all 5 Indexes; Present Situation Index: Average of indexes for questions 1 and 3; Expectations Index: Average of Indexes for questions 2, 4, and 5.
Indices are produced using a mix adjusted Nationwide Consumer Confidence Methodology which was introduced with effect from June 2008. Indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Currently the calculations are based on a monthly data series starting from May 2004. Figures are recalculated each month which may result in revisions to historical data.